The US election campaign is entering its final weeks, with voters set to head to the polls on November 5 to elect the next president.
Early voting is already underway in several states, including key battlegrounds like North Carolina and Georgia.
With less than three weeks remaining until the election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are working hard to win over undecided voters.
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However, it’s important to note that the popular vote does not determine the winner; instead, it influences which electors represent each state in the Electoral College, which ultimately selects the president.
To secure victory, a candidate must obtain 270 of the 538 electoral votes available. These votes are allocated among the states based on their populations.
Who is Leading?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Harris currently holds a 2.4-percentage-point lead over Trump in national polls.
After President Joe Biden, a Democrat, exited the race in July and endorsed Harris, her ratings have improved from earlier lower numbers.
Nonetheless, the race remains tight, with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast indicating that Harris is favored to win 54 out of 100 simulations, while Trump wins 46 out of 100.
Which States Could Swing the Election?
Swing states, or battleground states, are crucial in determining the outcome of a national election.
These states often have uncertain political leanings, with no party enjoying overwhelming support.
This year, key swing states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In the 2020 election, Georgia flipped from Republican to Democratic for the first time in nearly three decades, while Arizona narrowly went to the Democrats by 0.3 percentage points.
Current polls show a competitive race between Trump and Harris in these swing states, making them more significant for the Electoral College outcome than national polling.
What If Harris and Trump End in a Tie?
To win the election, a candidate must receive at least 270 electoral votes from the total of 538.
Although ties are unlikely, they can occur, resulting in a scenario where both candidates end up with 269 votes.
If no candidate achieves the necessary 270 votes, the US House of Representatives would conduct a contingent election to decide the winner, with each state delegation casting one vote.
A candidate needs a majority of state delegation votes (26 out of 50) to win. The US Senate would then select the vice president, requiring a simple majority of 51 votes.
How Do Polls Work?
Election polls aim to predict voter behavior by surveying a sample of the population.
These surveys are typically conducted via phone or online, and sometimes by mail or in person.
Poll trackers aggregate multiple polls and adjust for factors like sample size, pollster quality, recency, and methodology.
How Accurate Are Polls?
Polls are not always accurate. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, opinion polls underestimated support for Republican candidates.
While polls for the 2022 midterms showed improved accuracy, skepticism remains.
Challenges such as reaching voters—many of whom are reluctant to answer phone calls—contribute to inaccuracies.
Nonresponse bias, particularly among Trump supporters, has also skewed results.
Additionally, unexpected voter turnout, like that seen in 2020, can impact poll accuracy.
Polls typically include a margin of error, indicating the range within which actual results are likely to fall.
For example, with a sample size of 1,000 people, the margin of error is about plus or minus 3 percent.
Many polls conducted before this election have shown the support difference between Harris and Trump to be within that margin of error.
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