The Seven States That Will Decide The US Presidency

As Election Day approaches, the critical states shaping the 2024 race show minimal separation between the two candidates.

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According to the U.S. Constitution, each of the 50 states conducts its own presidential vote.

The Electoral College system assigns a specific number of “electors” to each state based on its population.

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Most states employ a winner-take-all approach, where all electors are awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote.

To secure victory, a candidate must obtain 270 out of 538 electoral votes.

This often leads to decisive outcomes in battleground states that frequently shift between Republican and Democratic candidates.

In this election cycle, there are seven key battleground states, each closely contested within the margin of error:

– Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes) –
Once a solidly Democratic state, Pennsylvania has become a tight battleground. Trump won the state by a narrow margin of 0.7 percentage points in 2016, while Biden reclaimed it by 1.2 percentage points in 2020. With its major cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh facing challenges from the decline of manufacturing, both candidates have focused their campaigns here. Trump is appealing to rural white voters and raising concerns about immigration, while Harris highlights infrastructure investments, promising $100 billion to bolster manufacturing.

– Georgia (16 Electoral Votes) –
Georgia emerged as a critical point of contention at the end of Trump’s term. He faced indictment over election interference related to his attempts to overturn Biden’s narrow 2020 victory in the state. Despite this legal challenge, the case will be paused until after the election, providing a potential boost for Trump. Harris is focusing on gaining support from minority voters in a state that has shifted demographics since Biden’s historic win in 2020.

– North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) –
Having voted Democratic only once since 1980, North Carolina presents a complex landscape. With a diverse and growing population, Harris believes she can regain traction here. However, a scandal involving the Republican gubernatorial candidate could complicate Trump’s chances, especially in light of the recent devastation caused by storm Helene.

– Michigan (15 Electoral Votes) –
Once a Democratic bastion, Michigan swung to Trump in 2016 before Biden won it back in 2020, benefiting from union support and a large Black community. However, Harris may face challenges with the Arab-American community, which has criticized the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

– Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) –
Arizona was one of the tightest races in 2020, with Biden winning by just 10,457 votes. Trump hopes to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policies to regain support in this border state. In September, Harris visited the Arizona border, vowing to address migration issues and revive a bipartisan border bill.

– Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) –
Wisconsin proved pivotal in 2016, with Clinton’s absence contributing to her loss. Biden’s efforts turned a deficit into a win in 2020, but Trump remains confident about reclaiming the state, having hosted his party’s summer convention there. The race has tightened, making Wisconsin a crucial battleground.

– Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) –
Nevada has not voted Republican since 2004, but Trump has gained momentum with Hispanic voters. Despite an early lead for Biden, Harris has made significant inroads by promoting economic initiatives aimed at supporting small businesses and addressing inflation in a state dominated by the hospitality industry.