Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in two of the three critical “blue wall” states, as revealed by new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters, while in Wisconsin, she garners 51% support compared to Trump’s 45%.
The race is neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, where both candidates are tied at 48%. All three states swung in favor of Trump in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.
Of the seven states classified as tossups by CNN, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only ones still including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a former independent candidate who has now endorsed Trump.
In Michigan, Kennedy receives 3% support, while he has 1% in Wisconsin. Overall, support for independent and third-party candidates is highest in Michigan, with 6% of likely voters backing someone other than Harris or Trump.
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Support for independent candidates diminishes among voters most motivated to participate.
In Michigan, among those extremely motivated to vote, Harris leads Trump 51% to 45%.
In Wisconsin, that margin widens to 52% for Harris and 47% for Trump, while in Pennsylvania, it stands at 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump.
These latest results align closely with the previous round of CNN polling conducted late last summer, when Harris led Trump 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with a tie at 47% in Pennsylvania.
A significant majority of voters in these blue wall states have made up their minds: only 8% in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan, and 6% in Wisconsin remain undecided or could change their minds before Election Day.
When it comes to trust on economic issues, Harris runs closer to Trump, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, where she is only 4 points behind in Michigan and 3 points behind in Wisconsin.
In contrast, she trails Trump by 8 points in Pennsylvania. However, Harris enjoys a wider lead over Trump in terms of handling democracy, with an 8-point advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin compared to a 4-point margin in Pennsylvania.
Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin view Harris as more honest and trustworthy, leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan, while the margin narrows to 7 points in Pennsylvania.
Voters in these two Midwestern states also perceive Harris as more likely to prioritize the country’s interests over her own, with a 10-point advantage in Wisconsin and an 8-point lead in Michigan, while Pennsylvania is evenly divided on this issue.
Additionally, voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely than those in Pennsylvania to believe that Harris cares about people like them, with a 9-point gap in the upper Midwest compared to just a 3-point difference in Pennsylvania.
In all three states, the proportion of likely voters backing Harris exceeds those who feel she shares their vision for the country, whereas Trump’s support aligns more closely with his standing on this question.
This suggests some voters may support Harris more due to concerns about Trump’s character than enthusiasm for her platform.
Among voters who prioritize leadership traits over specific issues, a majority support Harris.
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Notably, about 40% of her supporters indicate they are voting more against Trump than in favor of her, a higher percentage than Trump voters who cite opposition to Harris as their primary motivation.
Harris’ narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin are partly attributed to strong performances among White voters and White voters without college degrees, traditionally Republican-leaning groups.
White voters in both states are nearly evenly split, with Michigan at 48% for Trump and 44% for Harris, and Wisconsin showing a similar split.
Trump’s advantage among White voters without college degrees is smaller in these states compared to Pennsylvania, where he leads 61% to 34%.
Among Black voters, Harris holds a stronger lead in Michigan (83% to 12% for Trump) than in Pennsylvania (76% to 21%).
She also performs well with likely voters who hold college degrees across all three states, leading 59% to 36% in Wisconsin, 56% to 36% in Michigan, and 59% to 37% in Pennsylvania.
The closer race in Pennsylvania is evident in urban versus rural voting patterns.
Harris leads urban voters there by a narrower margin (53% to 38%) compared to Michigan (61% to 31%) and Wisconsin (70% to 28%).
Trump’s rural lead is most pronounced in Pennsylvania, where he leads 68% to 30%, compared to 61% to 31% in Wisconsin and 56% to 35% in Michigan.
Suburban voters in all three states favor Harris, with 55% support in Pennsylvania, 52% in Michigan, and 51% in Wisconsin.
The suburban demographic represents approximately half of likely voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 37% in Michigan and 28% in Wisconsin.
Each state also features competitive Senate races with Democrats defending their seats. Current polling shows Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading Republican former Rep.
Mike Rogers 48% to 42% in Michigan, while Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen. Bob Casey holds a slim 48% to 45% lead over Republican Dave McCormick. Wisconsin’s Democratic Sen.
Tammy Baldwin is closely matched with Republican Eric Hovde, holding 49% support to his 47%.
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In comparison to battleground states in the South and West, the blue wall states have less experience with early or mail-in voting.
Only about a third or fewer voters in these states report having cast their ballots already: 36% in Michigan, 34% in Wisconsin, and 26% in Pennsylvania.
This is the first presidential election with in-person early voting in Michigan, which has seen a significant turnout surge in the initial days.
Voters who have already cast their ballots strongly favor Harris across all three states (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin, and 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania).
If these trends hold in Pennsylvania, it would mark a notable shift toward Trump compared to the 2020 election, where Biden secured 76% of mail-in votes to Trump’s 23%.
Confidence in the accuracy of the electoral process is high, with at least 75% of likely voters in each state expressing some level of confidence that their votes will be accurately counted.
Nearly all Harris supporters (95% or more) express confidence, while about 60% of Trump supporters in each state feel the same.
The polls were conducted from October 23-28, 2024, through online and telephone interviews with registered voters, including 726 in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania, and 736 in Wisconsin.
The likely voter sample was weighted for predicted turnout, with a margin of sampling error of ±4.7 percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and ±4.8 points in Wisconsin.
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