In the final Iowa Poll before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump among likely voters, holding 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%, according to results from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom.
This 3-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error, which is 3.4 points, indicating that neither candidate has a clear lead in a state traditionally viewed as leaning Republican this election cycle.
The poll reflects a shift in support toward Harris since the previous Iowa Poll in September, where Trump held a narrow advantage, with 47% of likely voters backing him versus 43% for Harris.
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High-quality polling has been limited in Iowa so far this cycle, making comparisons challenging. Historically, Iowa’s presidential preferences have varied, with wins for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, followed by Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2020.
The new survey highlights a significant gender divide: women in Iowa favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men lean toward Trump with a closer margin of 52% to 38%. Independent voters, who earlier this year leaned toward Trump, now prefer Harris, 46% to 39%.
Older voters in Iowa are strongly behind Harris, with 55% of likely voters aged 65 and over supporting her compared to 36% for Trump, while younger voters (under 35) are nearly evenly split, with 46% supporting Harris and 44% backing Trump.
The poll indicates that a majority of Iowa’s likely voters have firmly decided on their candidate, with 91% saying their choice is set, 7% open to persuasion, and 2% still undecided.
Conducted by Selzer & Co., the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters by telephone from October 28-31. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is ±3.4 points.
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