The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecasted that in 2025, eight northern states will experience a delayed start to the rainy season.
The prediction was part of NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), presented by Festus Keyamo, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, in Abuja on Tuesday.
The affected states are Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara. The SCP, themed “The Role of Early Warnings Towards a Climate-Resilient Aviation Industry for Sustainable Socio-Economic Development,” also highlighted key rainfall predictions for the year.
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NiMet forecasts early rainfall onset for Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi. Conversely, it predicts an earlier-than-usual end to the rainy season in parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, FCT, Ekiti, and Ondo States.
A delayed season’s end is anticipated in regions including Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.
NiMet expects the overall length of the rainy season to be normal across most of the country, though it predicts shorter-than-usual seasons in Borno and parts of Yobe, while Lagos and Nasarawa are expected to experience longer-than-normal rainy seasons.
The agency also forecasts generally below-normal annual rainfall across Nigeria, with certain areas such as Kebbi, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and FCT seeing above-normal rainfall. High-intensity rainfall from May to June may cause flash floods in coastal cities.
As in previous years, pre-onset rainfall activities could be mistaken for the actual start of the rainy season. NiMet also anticipates a severe dry spell lasting more than 15 days after the initial rainfall in parts of Oyo State (including Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, and others) during the April-May-June (AMJ) season.
Moderate dry spells up to 15 days are predicted for parts of Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in the south, while northern states may face severe dry spells of up to 21 days during the June-July-August (JJA) season.
The Little Dry Season (LDS), or “August Break,” is expected to start in late July and be severe in parts of Lagos and Ogun. The number of days with little or no rainfall will range from 27 to 40 days, with moderate LDS effects in Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti States.
NiMet also predicts temperatures across the country will generally be above the long-term average, with warmer-than-usual daytime and nighttime temperatures in January, February, March, and May. However, April is expected to have cooler-than-normal temperatures, with northern states experiencing warmer-than-usual conditions.
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