Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former Governor of Kaduna State, has claimed that the relationship between President Bola Tinubu and the northern region has worsened in less than two years of his presidency.
He warned that Tinubu could face a situation similar to that of former President Goodluck Jonathan in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.
El-Rufai made this statement in a post on his verified X account, titled “2027: South West, Tinubu’s supporters playing with fire – Part 1.”
The former governor has been critical of the ruling APC and the policies of the Tinubu administration, while political figures from various parties have been considering the formation of a coalition capable of challenging the APC.
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In the post on X, El-Rufai stated, “It is actually premature to be talking about 2027 elections less than two years into our first tenure, but what is happening in the political arena is forcing me to speak to it, for as they say, ‘a stitch in time saves nine’.
“As an APC member, I naturally would want my party to win re-election in 2027. However, as a realist, I have my concerns.”
El-Rufai reflected on the 2019 APC primaries, noting how the party managed the process.
He warned that if the APC wasn’t cautious, it could end up like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which lost power after 16 years.
He predicted at that time that if the APC deviated from its promised progressive ideology and continued to prioritize winning elections at any cost, similar to the PDP, the party could lose control of the federal government by 2031.
El-Rufai said, “When I wrote that, we were not faced with the current situation we are faced with. Indeed, I never imagined that we would be in the current situation any time soon, surely not under President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
“Note, I am not talking about the present economic situation and the likes. I am talking about the current and increasing ‘ghaghagha’ in our party and among APC members and supporters of the PBAT administration.”
He added, “Incidentally, many Nigerians have a short memory. Permit me to juggle the memories of some short memories and uninitiated political neophytes.
“Many will recall that, as we approached the 2023 presidential election, with the conduct of some individuals, I desperately cautioned that we should be careful and not play with the north.
“Somehow, common sense prevailed, and we succeeded, unarguably and undeniably with the unquantifiable help of the north (the records of the election results prove so).
“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the north and President Bola Tinubu or rather his administration is quickly deteriorating, driven by the words and conduct of, unfortunately, many from the president’s geopolitical zone and tribe. Truth be told.
“I have read and heard the arrogant posturing and braggadocio by some people whom I refer to as political rabble-rousers, but I get more worried each day as it keeps looking more and more like a movie we had seen before.
“May I remind some persons that, more than the performance or lack thereof of the President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan administration, it was his attitude, and that of people around him, towards the north that ultimately brought him down and, by extension, the PDP that had boasted that it would rule Nigeria for 60 years.”
El-Rufai explained that ahead of the 2015 presidential election, despite the widespread popularity of General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) and the political support the newly formed APC garnered, one major factor that contributed to President Jonathan and the PDP’s loss was their underestimation of the north, along with the disrespect and insults directed toward it.
He attributed this miscalculation to the then-first lady and some influential figures from the South-south, particularly Jonathan’s Ijaw kinsmen, many of whom held little political influence and were living off newfound wealth in luxury hotels like NICON and Sheraton in Abuja.
Interestingly, El-Rufai pointed out that many of these individuals had contributed little to Jonathan’s 2011 victory.
He emphasized that these individuals overlooked the role of groups like the Save Nigeria Group (SNG), led by figures such as Pastor Tunde Bakare, himself, and the late Yinka Odumakin, whose efforts helped Jonathan become acting president following the illness of President Umaru Yar’adua.
El-Rufai stated, “Driven by ego and the arrogance of power, these South-south and PDP elements increasingly and, I dare add, naively went against the north, where the PDP still had considerable influence and support then, in the most condescending manner and in so doing gradually lost the support of the north to the advantage of Buhari and the APC coalition. The rest, as they say, is history.
“Today, as I look at the rambunctiousness of some APC members and fellow supporters of President Bola Tinubu, especially from the South-west geopolitical zone, I wonder if people have any sense of history and if they truly understand Nigerian politics.
“I read some people say that President Tinubu is not former President Jonathan, Jagaban is a political juggernaut and master strategist, etc. All that I totally agree with. No question whatsoever. However, politics is not a one champion show.
“While former President Goodluck Jonathan lacked equivalent political gravitas and sophistication (with all due respect to him) as PBAT, he had the then formidable PDP behemoth, which could have actually seen him through, but for the grievous ‘political mistake’ of messing with the north.
“Love or loathe that fact, the north remains the kingmaker in Nigerian politics, at least, as of today. Any politician or political party that plays with that reality might pay a steep political price for it.”
El-Rufai stressed that people, who ignored history were bound to fall victim and repeat mistakes of the past.
He said, “I just want to prod our political senses, in case some of us are forgetting, in the euphoria of tribal and geopolitical politics. I hope better sense will prevail and soon, too. It is whom you love that you chastise.
“In all, I continue to wish PBAT and my party, the APC, well. With almost exactly two years to the month, to the 2027 general election, let’s focus and continue to deliver the promised dividends of democracy to Nigerians.”
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