Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum and Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Vice President, has issued a stark warning: President Bola Tinubu risks significant political backlash if he decides to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 general election.
Speaking on Channels Television, Baba-Ahmed asserted that any attempt to replace Shettima could be politically disastrous, particularly given the delicate religious and regional balance that underpinned Tinubu’s 2023 victory.
He described the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the last election as a “political joker” that “narrowly worked due to unusual circumstances.”
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According to him, attempting to replicate this formula or alter it—especially by removing Shettima—could severely alienate key voter blocs in the North, particularly among Muslims and loyalists from the North-East.
“You have offended the Muslims, the people who walked every inch of the way with you,” Baba-Ahmed stated, referencing the political sacrifice made by many Muslim and northern constituencies who set aside sectarian sensitivities to support the Tinubu-Shettima ticket.
He warned, “So if you remove the Vice President now, for whatever reason, you will not just offend them again you will alienate them.”
He cautioned that any plan to substitute Shettima with another running mate, especially from the North-Central or a Christian candidate, would be perceived as betrayal and could backfire electorally.
“You cannot now say ‘I’m removing him and I’m going to put a Christian as my running mate’ or ‘I’m going to take somebody from the North-Central.’ It won’t work.”
Baba-Ahmed emphasized that Nigerians are becoming more politically aware and would not accept a ticket or political arrangement seemingly motivated by opportunism or electoral expediency.
“It’s the governance thing that you will take to the electorate at the end. It’s not the ticket. Nigerians are going to say, ‘What did you do in the first four years?’”
While Tinubu’s 2023 decision to run with Shettima, both Muslims from the South-West and North-East respectively, drew heavy criticism from Christian groups, the ticket nevertheless prevailed against a divided opposition.
However, Baba-Ahmed suggested that this victory came at a cost and cannot be easily replicated or altered without major consequences.
“This Muslim-Muslim ticket was a political joker. You cannot use that joker again. It’s spent,” he stated firmly. “It worked once, because there were very unusual circumstances… but it won’t work again.”
He advised the Tinubu administration to prioritize governance over political scheming. “This administration is already wasting time on political calculations 2027 is too far. People want to see real progress now.”
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Baba-Ahmed’s remarks come amid speculation that Tinubu might be pressured to reconfigure his political team for the next presidential election, possibly exploring options for a running mate from a different region or religious group to address past criticisms.
However, Baba-Ahmed cautioned against any move that could destabilize the current political structure or undermine the North-East’s contribution to the All Progressives Congress (APC) victory in 2023.
“You want to go back to the same people and say, ‘We want your support again,’ after you’ve removed the one they gave you?”
He warned of significant consequences from within the party’s Northern base for such a decision, stressing that “Loyalty matters. Performance matters. And if you drop a key partner in victory, especially without clear and acceptable reasons, don’t expect people to queue behind you again.”
When asked about Shettima’s performance, Baba-Ahmed deferred a direct assessment, noting that leadership is a collective effort.
He concluded that the APC’s ability to retain power in 2027 would depend on strong voter trust, which “will come not from juggling the ticket, but from results. Nigerians want power, jobs, security. If you give them those, you won’t need to switch running mates to win.”
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