In a significant development reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape, several governors elected under the main opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), are defecting to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the country approaches the 2027 general elections.
While defections are nothing new in Nigerian politics, observers believe the current movement “is unprecedented due to its timing, pace, and symbolism.
Governors who have recently switched include Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State and Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State earlier this year, and more recently, Duoye Diri of Bayelsa State and Peter Mbah of Enugu State.
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This trend has strengthened APC’s foothold in Nigeria, notably consolidating its position as the biggest party in the South-East (controlling three of the five states after Mbah’s defection) and weakening the PDP in its otherwise strongholds.”
Rumours also suggest that Agbu Kefas, Taraba State governor, is also planning to defect to the ruling party.
Interviews with politicians and active Nigerians point to five possible reasons for the defections:
1. Power Consolidation
Pundits suggest the defections indicate President Bola Tinubu’s “strategy to consolidate his influence across southern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections.
This push is occurring amid discontent over his administration’s policies and reforms in the North, where his popularity is said to have waned significantly since he took office in 2023.
Many key northern politicians who helped secure his 2023 victory, particularly those allied with the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc, have moved to the Action Democratic Congress (ADC).
Additionally, efforts to persuade Rabiu Kwankwaso, leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and governor of strategic Kano State, have not been successful.
Consequently, the administration fears that it would lose a large chunk of the votes in the northern Nigeria in 2027 and is making desperate moves to consolidate its strength in the South.
2. PDP’s Internal Crisis Fuelling Exodus
The PDP has been struggling with internal discord since its defeat in the 2023 presidential election, with factions loyal to different power blocs, such as the G5 Governors versus the national leadership.
A top party official, speaking anonymously, noted: “There’s no longer a sense of unity or purpose in the PDP,” adding that “People are looking out for their interests.”
This lack of “a clear direction, leadership disputes, and allegations of marginalisation” are driving governors to seek stability. Despite the efforts of leaders like Seyi Makinde, Oyo State governor, “there are growing fears the planned convention may not hold due to litigations and serious moves to stop the convention by aggrieved members.”
Pundits argue that many governors are defecting out of fear “for their chances in the 2027 general election,” especially given the PDP’s unresolved crisis over who the authentic chairman and general secretary are.
This concern about who would “sign their nomination forms” is a major factor, as many fear it could be used by opponents to unseat them in court.
3. Lure to be Close to Central Government
Policy experts argue that a key incentive is access to federal power and resources. Given Nigeria’s centralized system, the federal government controls significant funding, projects, and security apparatus.
Chika Ibe, a public policy expert at the University of Abuja, said: “Governors don’t want to be in opposition when crucial funding and development projects are being shared. It’s political survival.”
By joining the APC, governors likely believe they can secure better treatment or, the very least is to avoid being politically sidelined.
Governor Peter Mbah’s defection was framed as a decision for “development, not politics,” citing the need to work closer with President Tinubu. Sam Amadi, a policy strategist at the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, attributed the defections to “the need for self-preservation,” noting that many governors are not driven by political ideology and “have no confidence in the electoral process.”
4. Coercion, Fear of Prosecution for Corruption
Reports suggest that opposition politicians, especially incumbent governors, are being pressured to join the APC.
Some sources indicate that governors fear losing their investments or businesses located in Lagos and the FCT, while others simply fear for their political future.
The Forum of State Chairmen of the PDP recently condemned what it called the ‘APC’s undemocratic and desperate efforts to intimidate PDP leaders… into defecting,’ warning that such actions posed a serious threat to Nigeria’s democracy and risked creating a one-party state.
Hassan Saliu, national president of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), said some are defecting to secure their future, avoid investigation, or preserve influence, calculating that joining the ruling party “seems the safest thing to do.
He added that “The PDP has been out of power for over 10 years now, and politics here is cash and carry.”
5. Strategic Positioning Ahead 2027
Pundits conclude that the defections are not just political headlines; they are part of a larger realignment ahead of the 2027 elections.
Amadi stressed that governors view APC membership as nothing but security for their businesses and assets, especially for post-governorship security.
He asked: “If the governor of Rivers State can be removed without any consequence, why do you think they will not work to secure their future while still in the office?”
Amadi concluded that They think that this government is so powerful and can do anything.
