In the survey, Harris holds a lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada. All the results are within the poll’s margin of error, except in Nevada, where Trump leads by 5 points.
The Wall Street Journal polled 600 registered voters in each state between September 28 and October 8.
In U.S. presidential elections, victory is not determined by the national popular vote. Instead, candidates compete for electoral college votes in individual states, with most states awarding all their votes to the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote. Only Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system.
Most states are predictable, with Democrats reliably winning states like California and Vermont, while Republicans dominate in places like Oklahoma and Alabama.
However, a small number of key battleground or “swing states” often have close contests. This year, the focus is on the seven states polled by the WSJ.
In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote, as he secured wins in most swing states, defeating Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
A separate Pew Research Center poll, also released Friday, indicates Harris is leading nationally by a slim margin, 48% to Trump’s 47%.
Polling results have varied over recent months.
Trump had a solid lead over Joe Biden earlier this year, but the Democrats gained momentum when Biden stepped down and Harris became the party’s nominee.
A Morning Consult poll in September showed Harris leading Trump 51% to 46%.
However, Trump has regained some support amid growing concerns over the economy and unrest in the Middle East.
Polls have been wrong before, notably in 2016, when many predicted a Clinton victory. But this year’s surveys consistently suggest the U.S. is heading toward another closely contested presidential election.
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