Trump Vs Harris: Who Is Leading In US Election Polls With 12 Days Left

At the same time, former President Donald Trump addressed supporters at a “Georgia for Trump” rally. Georgia, which has 16 Electoral College votes, is another vital battleground; Trump won it in 2016 but narrowly lost to President Joe Biden in 2020.

According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, nearly 25 million voters have already cast their ballots through early in-person voting and mail-in options.

Latest Polls

A new Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll released Wednesday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points nationally, at 47% to her 45%.

This represents a shift from Harris’s 2-point lead in the WSJ’s August survey. Both figures fall within the polls’ margins of error, indicating a close race.

While many polls have shown Harris leading nationally, the candidates are neck-and-neck in key swing states.

The WSJ survey also indicates that voters’ perceptions of Trump’s agenda and past performance have become more favorable, while views of Harris have turned more negative.

In a separate analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Harris holds a slight lead in the average of national polls, ahead of Trump by 1.8 percentage points.

However, the long-term trend shows the race tightening, with the gap narrowing over time.

While national polls provide useful insights into voter sentiment, the Electoral College ultimately decides the winner, dependent on individual state results.

The seven key swing states likely to determine the election outcome are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), together accounting for 93 Electoral College votes.

Currently, in these states, Harris has a narrow lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, and a slightly larger one in Michigan, which has increased from a narrow 0.2% to 0.7%.

Trump leads by more than 1.5% in Arizona and Georgia, while North Carolina and Pennsylvania show very slim margins in his favor.

All these states fall within a statistical margin of error, meaning the results could easily sway in either direction on election day.