Bitcoin Close To Record As Cautious Markets Eye US Election

The recent rally in bitcoin is widely viewed as a bet on a Republican win, with Donald Trump positioning himself as the “pro-crypto” candidate.

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According to Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, bitcoin’s price has been closely aligned with Trump’s polling numbers, as a Republican victory is anticipated to boost demand for digital assets.

During his presidency, Trump was critical of cryptocurrencies, but he has since changed his stance, now promoting himself as a “pro-bitcoin president” if re-elected and even launching his own crypto platform.

Amid the heightened uncertainty of a tight US election, safe-haven gold also surged to a record $2,787.07 on Wednesday.

Oil prices saw a modest recovery after a sharp fall earlier in the week, with concerns over a Middle East escalation easing after Israel’s strikes on Iran avoided critical energy infrastructure.

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“The broader oil market reaction feels somewhat out of step with global developments,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “Oil seems to be overlooking favorable US economic data and China’s stimulus efforts to support its struggling economy.”

Asian stock markets mostly declined following a mixed session on Wall Street. Tokyo led the few gains, closing 1% higher as the Nikkei was lifted by a weaker yen and tech gains. Manila was the only other market in positive territory.

Hong Kong led losses, dropping 1.6%, while other major markets, including Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok, also saw declines. In Europe, London, Paris, and Frankfurt opened lower.

“Asian markets are broadly down on Wednesday, with investors cautious and adopting a risk-averse approach ahead of the US election,” noted Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management. “Even China’s rumored 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) stimulus plan is being met with skepticism as investors question its potential impact on the broader economy.”

Investors are also looking to a key political meeting in Beijing next week, where a significant stimulus package may be announced to support the Chinese economy, still weighed down by a real estate debt crisis and sluggish post-pandemic recovery.

Key US economic data is due later this week, which could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy direction.

Third-quarter GDP growth estimates will be released later Wednesday, with inflation data and the crucial monthly labor market report expected on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, data released Tuesday showed US job openings had dropped to their lowest level since 2021, undershooting expectations and suggesting possible cooling in the labor market.

US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed to over 4.3% this week, their highest level since early July, reflecting expectations of limited rate cuts from the Fed at its November 7 meeting.

Market Figures at 0810 GMT:

• Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0% at 39,277.39 (close)
• Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.6% at 20,380.64 (close)
• Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.6% at 3,266.24 (close)
• London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5% at 8,177.75
• Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0841 from $1.0816 on Tuesday
• Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3018 from $1.3010
• Dollar/yen: DOWN at 153.12 yen from 153.57 yen
• Euro/pound: UP at 83.28 pence from 83.13 pence
• Brent Crude: UP 0.8% at $71.65 per barrel
• WTI Crude: UP 0.9% at $67.79 per barrel
• New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4% at 42,233.05 (close)

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