According to data from CNN, Edison Research, and Catalist—a firm offering data and analysis primarily to Democratic entities, academics, and nonprofits—over 78 million ballots have already been cast across 47 states and Washington, D.C.
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This data provides insight into early voting trends but doesn’t predict final outcomes, as it doesn’t indicate candidate choice or account for millions of Americans expected to vote on Election Day.
With less than 24 hours until polls open nationwide on November 5, here are three key observations on early voting trends so far.
Early Voting Turnout Lower Than in 2020
Early voting turnout has decreased from the 2020 levels.
During the pandemic, over 110 million Americans voted early, which was about 70% of all ballots cast in that election.
This year, early voting is likely to represent closer to 50% of total ballots, a distribution more in line with the 2022 midterms.
Though total early voting numbers are lower, certain states, including Georgia and North Carolina, saw record numbers of early in-person voters.
Georgia, in particular, exceeded its 2020 early voting turnout, though fewer North Carolinians voted by mail this year.
Republicans Increase Their Share of Early Votes
Republican participation in early voting has grown since 2020, largely due to a shift in campaign messaging that now encourages Republicans to vote early or by mail.
Among 27 states with available data, registered Democrats have cast 37% of early ballots, and registered Republicans 35%, narrowing the 12-point lead Democrats had at the same time in 2020.
Republicans have increased their early voting share in critical states.
In Arizona, Republicans account for 41% of early voters, up 4 points from 2020, while Democrats’ share has decreased by 3 points.
In Pennsylvania, Republican early voting participation rose by 10 points to 33%, while Democrats dropped to 56%.
Despite higher early Republican participation, CNN polls suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris generally leads among early voters in battleground states, with the exception of Nevada.
Gender Gap Persists but Narrows
The gender gap in early voting remains, though it has slightly narrowed compared to 2020.
In the seven most competitive states, 1.8 million more women than men have voted early.
Georgia shows the largest gap, with women casting 56% of early ballots and men 44%.
Arizona and North Carolina have similar disparities, with a smaller gap in Nevada, where women cast 51% of early votes and men 47%.
In Pennsylvania, a potential deciding state, women have cast 56% of early votes, down from 57% in previous election cycles.
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