Dollar Soars, Bitcoin Hits Record, Stocks Swing As Trump Win Seen

Despite polls indicating a tight race, Trump seemed to be performing better than his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, as the results came in.

Both candidates had secured expected wins in their stronghold states, but early signs that Trump was gaining ground boosted the so-called “Trump Trade.”

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Although several key swing states remained too close to call, Trump clinched victories in Georgia and North Carolina, with other states still in flux.

News that the Republican Party had gained control of the Senate added to optimism about tax cuts, more tariffs, and deregulation, which are expected to benefit the U.S. dollar.

The dollar rose by 1.5 percent to 154.33 yen, its highest level since July, while it also gained more than 1 percent against the euro and over 3 percent against the Mexican peso. Bitcoin surged by nearly $6,000, hitting a record $75,330.88, surpassing its previous peak of $73,797.98 in March.

Trump’s pledge to make the U.S. the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and to appoint Elon Musk to audit government waste seemed to influence investor sentiment.

According to Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, Bitcoin’s price movements closely mirrored Trump’s poll standings and betting odds. Investors appeared to believe a Republican win would drive demand for digital currency.

Analysts suggested that a Republican sweep of Congress and the White House could push the dollar and Treasury yields higher, given Trump’s tax-cutting and tariff-heavy agenda.

A Republican-controlled Senate and House could usher in significant fiscal policy changes, though some warned that congressional gridlock might limit the extent of these shifts.

Peter Esho, economist and founder of Esho Capital, noted that markets were pricing in expectations of higher growth and inflation under such a scenario, which could present challenges for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he seeks to combat inflation.

The election results coincided with the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where a 25-basis point interest rate cut was expected, following a 50-basis point reduction in September.

The dollar’s surge against the yen helped propel Tokyo stocks more than 3 percent higher, driven by strong performance in exporters.

Other major Asian markets, including Shanghai, Sydney, and Mumbai, saw gains, but losses were noted in Seoul, Wellington, Manila, and Jakarta. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell significantly due to concerns over the potential impact of a Trump presidency on China’s economy and U.S.-China relations.

The election was closely watched globally, particularly in China, where Trump had vowed to intensify the trade battle by imposing further tariffs on Chinese goods.

This comes as Chinese leaders work on a stimulus package to support economic growth and address a significant debt crisis in the property sector.

Key figures around 0620 GMT:

• Dollar/yen: Up at 153.85 yen (from 151.60 yen on Tuesday)
• Euro/dollar: Down at $1.0746 (from $1.0930)
• Pound/dollar: Down at $1.2884 (from $1.3035)
• Euro/pound: Down at 83.41 pence (from 83.82)

Stock indices:

• Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Up 2.4% at 39,405.19 (close)
• Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Down 2.0% at 20,585.45
• Shanghai – Composite: Up 0.4% at 3,400.69

Commodities:

• West Texas Intermediate: Down 1.8% at $70.73 per barrel
• Brent North Sea Crude: Down 1.8% at $74.19 per barrel

U.S. Markets:

• New York – Dow: Up 1.0% at 42,221.88 (close)
• London – FTSE 100: Down 0.1% at 8,172.39 (close)