The holiday shopping season is about to hit full throttle with Black Friday, which kicks off the post-Thanksgiving retail rush later this week.
While the iconic event no longer sparks the chaotic midnight crowds or doorbuster frenzies of decades past, it remains a major fixture in the shopping calendar.
The shift is largely due to the rise of online shopping and consumer habits formed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
To attract shoppers still on the fence, retailers have been flooding customers with ads and early-bird deals for weeks.
However, whether browsing stores or sorting through email inboxes filled with promises of massive discounts, millions of Americans are expected to shop on Black Friday itself this year.
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According to industry forecasts, 183.4 million people are projected to shop in U.S. stores and online between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation and consumer research firm Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Of that number, 131.7 million are expected to hit the stores or websites on Black Friday.
At the same time, the earlier and earlier start to Black Friday-like promotions, coupled with the growing prominence of events like Cyber Monday, is reshaping the landscape of holiday shopping.
Here’s a rundown of Black Friday’s history and what to expect in 2024.
When is Black Friday in 2024?
Black Friday falls on Friday, Nov. 29 this year, the day after Thanksgiving.
The Origins of Black Friday
While the term “Black Friday” has been around for centuries, it wasn’t always associated with holiday shopping. For example, the gold market crash of September 1869 was famously called Black Friday.
The use of “Black Friday” to describe the day after Thanksgiving shopping spree, however, can be traced back to mid-20th-century Philadelphia. At that time, large crowds would flock to the city ahead of the annual Army-Navy football game, coinciding with seasonal sales, which created major logistical headaches for local police and public transit workers.
As a Gimbels department store manager explained to The Associated Press in 1975: “That’s why the bus drivers and cab drivers call today ‘Black Friday.’ They think in terms of headaches it gives them.”
Earlier references to the term can be found in the 1950s and 1960s, with some suggesting that workers would call in sick the day after Thanksgiving to extend their holiday weekend.
By the 1980s, retailers started claiming that Black Friday represented the moment when they moved from being “in the red” (losing money) to “in the black” (turning a profit) due to the surge in holiday sales. However, experts point out that most retailers now operate in the black year-round, making this explanation less relevant.
How Has Black Friday Evolved?
In recent decades, Black Friday became synonymous with massive crowds of shoppers vying for steep discounts on electronics, toys, and more.
Many shoppers camped out overnight to be first in line for “doorbuster” deals.
But the rise of e-commerce has changed everything. Today, many shoppers make most, if not all, of their holiday purchases online, never stepping foot inside a store.
While foot traffic at brick-and-mortar stores has bounced back somewhat since the pandemic, online shopping is firmly here to stay.
In 2003, e-commerce accounted for just 1.7% of total retail sales in the fourth quarter.
Today, that number is much higher—around 17.1% for the 2023 holiday season, up from 12.7% in 2019, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
In addition to the rise of online shopping, many items that once drove Black Friday foot traffic—like flat-screen TVs—are now much more affordable, reducing the need to stand in line for a deal.
As Jay Zagorsky, a clinical associate professor at Boston University, points out, the price of a TV has dropped 75% since 2014, which means fewer people are eager to camp out for hours for a markdown.
Despite the shift toward online shopping, projections indicate that 65% of Black Friday shoppers will still shop in person this year, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights.
The “Black Friday Month” and the Rise of Cyber Monday
It’s no secret that Black Friday has stretched beyond just one day. Retailers begin sending out holiday promotions weeks before Thanksgiving, often before Halloween.
As Jie Zhang, a marketing professor at the University of Maryland, explains, “Black Friday is no longer the start of the holiday shopping season.
It’s become the crescendo of the season,” stretching out into what feels like “Black Friday month.” In fact, some retailers have even started referring to it as “Black Friday Week.”
This extended shopping period is driven by a desire to get a jump on the competition and better manage shipping logistics, says Zhang.
Spreading out purchases allows retailers to avoid logistical bottlenecks and makes it easier to fulfill orders on time.
With fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas in 2024, this early rush also helps retailers manage the compressed holiday timeline.
While pre-Thanksgiving sales now blur the line between traditional holiday events, they also serve a marketing purpose—capitalizing on the familiarity and recognition of the “Black Friday” brand.
In addition to Black Friday, the post-Thanksgiving shopping weekend includes Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday, which has become one of the biggest online shopping days of the year.
The National Retail Federation formally designated Cyber Monday in 2005, and it continues to grow.
In 2023, U.S. consumers spent a record $12.4 billion online on Cyber Monday, including $15.7 million per minute at the peak sales hour, according to Adobe Analytics. For Black Friday, online sales reached $9.8 billion.
Despite the increasing shift toward online shopping, in-person shopping on Black Friday still holds significant appeal for many.
“Black Friday remains a social event for some,” says Zagorsky, who believes the event will continue to hold importance for retailers, even as its overall significance evolves.
In short, while the shopping landscape has changed dramatically, Black Friday remains a key milestone in the holiday season—whether shoppers are hunting for bargains in stores or from the comfort of their couches.
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