The World Bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report paints a concerning picture for Nigeria, projecting a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty by 2027.
Released during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, the report identifies Nigeria’s dependence on oil, economic instability, and governance issues as primary contributing factors.
It underscores the nation’s fundamental economic weaknesses, reliance on oil revenue, and national fragility as significant obstacles to meaningful poverty reduction.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries, including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
Despite some growth in Nigeria’s non-oil sector in the last quarter of 2024, the World Bank cautions that this progress is unlikely to significantly alleviate poverty due to persistent fiscal and institutional challenges.
The report highlights that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest rates of poverty globally, accounting for 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people in 2024.
Within this region, half of the 560 million extremely poor individuals reside in just four countries, including Nigeria. This is in stark contrast to South Asia (8%), East Asia and the Pacific (2%), the Middle East and North Africa (5%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (3%).
The World Bank attributes the rising poverty in Nigeria and similar economies to declining oil prices and unstable governance structures, noting a “well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates, averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”
Conversely, African countries without significant natural resources are experiencing stronger economic growth and faster poverty reduction, benefiting from high agricultural commodity prices and more stable fiscal policies.
To reverse Nigeria’s trend of increasing poverty, the World Bank recommends reforms that prioritize inclusive economic growth and stronger public financial management, urging the government to focus on “improving fiscal management and building a stronger fiscal contract with citizens to promote inclusive economic development and long-term poverty alleviation.”
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