Donald Trump’s Odds Of Election Victory Have Suddenly Gone Into Free Fall

Meanwhile, Harris has gained momentum, with her odds rising from 33% to 45% following an Iowa poll by the respected pollster Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register, showing Harris leading Trump by three points among likely voters, though no clear frontrunner has emerged despite Trump winning Iowa in both 2016 and 2020.

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On competing prediction platform Kalshi, which recently began accepting crypto deposits via USDC and is available to U.S. users, the gap has narrowed to just four percentage points.

Currently, Kalshi users estimate Trump’s odds at 52%, with Harris at 48%, a notable shift from a 65% to 35% split in Trump’s favor earlier in the week.

Unlike traditional polls that survey voter intentions, prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi represent an open market where users bet on expected outcomes of various events, from elections to entertainment and sports.

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Since January, Polymarket has processed over $3 billion in wagers on the U.S. presidential election, with Trump consistently favored among its user base, who are often younger, male, and interested in crypto.

A prominent Polymarket user based in France has reportedly placed a $30 million bet on Trump winning the 2024 election, telling The Wall Street Journal that his motivation is purely financial, not political.

Polymarket’s popularity has surged within the crypto community, with many viewing it as a successful application of decentralized technology.

Interest peaked over the summer as users speculated on Joe Biden’s early July exit from the race—weeks before his official withdrawal.