2027: Tinubu Leads Early Forecast With 20 States, Atiku 9, Obi 8

President Bola Tinubu is projected to win the 2027 presidential election in an early forecast by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, leading former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party candidate Peter Obi with 20 states compared to Atiku’s nine and Obi’s eight.

The projection attributes Tinubu’s lead to his perceived achievements in stabilizing the economy and repositioning the country, securing complete dominance across all six South-West states including Lagos, and capturing the crucial northern battleground and electoral heavyweight of Kano State, though PIG emphasizes that factors like inflation, employment, security, infrastructure, cost of living, and effective communication of policy impacts could heavily sway voter decisions before the polls.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to claim nine states by maintaining formidable support across Northern Nigeria—including Kaduna and key states in the North-East and North-West—leveraging his established political network and previous presidential campaigns.

Atiku’s position on reviewing the current fuel subsidy policy to reduce transport and living expenses is expected to become a major campaign talking point, though it raises critical questions regarding government revenue, public spending, and financial sustainability, with his ultimate electoral chances depending on his ability to blend his northern stronghold with substantial backing from other regions.

Labour Party candidate Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, with strong anticipated showings in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Edo State that reflect the solid political foundation and support base he built during the 2023 presidential election.

Obi’s campaign is set to center on political change, economic management, public accountability, and government efficiency, with his primary hurdle remaining the challenge of expanding his support footprint beyond the areas where he has traditionally performed strongly.

Concluding its assessment, the Political Intelligence Group cautioned that the forecast is based on a hypothetical September scenario under currently prevailing circumstances with the APC in power and should not be treated as the final outcome.

The political landscape could undergo dramatic shifts before 2027 due to new political alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, running mate selections, and fluctuations in candidate popularity, alongside voters weighing ethnic, religious, and regional interests against broader economic realities like inflation, petrol prices, and overall government performance.