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President Bola Tinubu has secured a narrow lead over Labour Party’s Peter Obi by 1,067 votes in the latest National Trust Poll conducted by Oxford–Metro Analytics ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
The survey, which concluded on September 7, compiled a verified analytical dataset comprising 69,110 unflagged participant submissions.
Tinubu captured 35.41 per cent of the overall responses with 24,469 votes, while Obi followed closely with 23,402 votes, representing 33.86 per cent.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar claimed the third position after pulling 18,430 responses, which accounted for 26.67 per cent of total participation.
The figures give Tinubu a slight edge of 1,067 votes over Obi, translating to a slim margin of roughly 1.54 percentage points.
Despite the close national race, the geographical distribution of the poll points to significant shifts in political support compared to the 2023 general election map.
Tinubu—who claimed victory in 12 states during the 2023 ballot—led the voting in 20 states as well as the Federal Capital Territory in this online survey.
In contrast, both Obi and Atiku managed to secure top placement in eight states apiece.
The most notable political realignment occurred across key Northern territories, where public sentiment showed growing backing for the incumbent president.
Tinubu took the lead in Kaduna, Katsina, and Gombe—three states previously won by Atiku in the 2023 election.
Additionally, he placed first in Kano State, which was carried by New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) flagbearer Rabiu Kwankwaso in 2023.
Zonal metrics indicate that Tinubu dominated the South-West, North-West, and North-Central geopolitical regions.
Conversely, Obi delivered his strongest showings across the South-East and South-South, while Atiku held his firmest grip on the North-East.
Breakdowns reveal Tinubu secured 10,968 responses in the South-West (43.53 per cent), 4,129 responses in the North-West (43.10 per cent), and 6,370 responses in the North-Central (36.97 per cent).
Obi recorded his highest regional concentration in the South-East with 5,796 votes (63.97 per cent) and dominated the South-South with 2,389 votes (41.48 per cent).
Atiku’s strongest regional performance came from the North-East, where he gathered 1,235 votes, representing 55.46 per cent of the zone’s entries.
While Tinubu demonstrated broader territorial coverage, the minimal 1,067-vote gap emphasizes how tight the presidential contest remains between the frontrunners.
State-level data further revealed razor-thin margins in several local battles.
In Kogi State, out of just 110 recorded entries, Tinubu gathered 39 votes, Atiku received 38, and Obi took 33—highlighting how small sample sizes shaped localized outcomes.
In the Federal Capital Territory, Tinubu edged out Obi with 5,599 votes to 5,278 (a 321-vote gap), while Atiku gathered 3,954 votes.
In Rivers State, Tinubu collected 975 votes against Obi’s 892 and Atiku’s 568, leaving an 83-vote difference between the top two contenders.
Among other candidates featured in the poll, Omoyele Sowore pulled 1,016 responses, Governor Seyi Makinde earned 519, and former President Goodluck Jonathan received 284.
Minor figures including Anita Zugwai-Chukwu, Sandy Onor, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu received 18, 6, and 2 votes respectively.
Additionally, 638 respondents indicated they did not trust any candidate yet, 204 remained undecided, and 122 opted for unlisted candidates.
The pollsters noted that regional dominance did not automatically equate to total national control.
Participation was also heavily skewed toward urban centers, with Lagos and the FCT jointly generating 54.44 per cent of all total responses.
Finally, 56 diaspora entries were included in the total national count but excluded from the six domestic zonal analyses.
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