According to a 2021 report from the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Tehran possesses thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with varying ranges.
While the exact numbers for each missile type remain unclear, U.S. Air Force Gen. Kenneth McKenzie testified before Congress in 2023 that Iran has “over 3,000” ballistic missiles, as reported by Iran Watch, a project of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.
Ballistic missiles follow trajectories that take them outside or near the edge of Earth’s atmosphere before their warheads separate from the launch vehicle and descend back into the atmosphere toward their targets.
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Experts analyzing verified social media videos from the recent attack on Israel indicated that Iran employed variants of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile.
The Shahab-3, introduced into service in 2003, serves as the foundation for all of Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles and utilizes liquid propellant.
According to Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES), the Shahab-3 can carry warheads weighing between 760 and 1,200 kilograms (1,675 to 2,645 pounds) and can be launched from mobile platforms as well as silos.
The Missile Threat Project reports that the latest Shahab-3 variants, the Ghadr and Emad missiles, have accuracies of around 300 meters (nearly 1,000 feet) from their intended targets.
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Iranian media have stated that Tehran used a new missile, the Fattah-1, in the recent attacks.
The Fattah-1 is described as a “hypersonic” missile, capable of traveling at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (approximately 3,800 miles per hour, or 6,100 kilometers per hour).
However, analysts note that almost all ballistic missiles achieve hypersonic speeds during their flight, particularly as they descend toward their targets.
The term “hypersonic” typically refers to hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, which are advanced weapons that can maneuver at hypersonic speeds within the atmosphere, making them extremely difficult to intercept.
According to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Fattah-1 does not fit into these categories.
He explains that it seems to feature a warhead on a “maneuverable reentry vehicle,” allowing it to adjust its path to evade missile defenses during a brief segment of its descent.
While this capability would represent an improvement over Iran’s earlier missile systems, analysts are doubtful that Iran would have deployed this new missile for the first time during Tuesday night’s operation.
Trevor Ball, a former senior explosive ordnance technician for the U.S. Army, remarked, “It’s one of their newest ballistic missiles, and they have a lot to lose by using it.
Israel would gain insights into its capabilities just from its use.
Additionally, if it were to malfunction, it would provide Israel with even greater information about its capabilities. They risk nothing by claiming it was employed.”
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