China and Mexico reacted sharply on Tuesday after Donald Trump threatened to start his presidency with an immediate trade war against the United States’ top three economic partners.
Trump made his warning in social media posts, announcing massive import tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as China, unless they stop illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the U.S.
He framed the tariffs as leverage to address what he called a “national emergency” involving crime and migration.
China swiftly responded, asserting that “no one will win a trade war,” while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum issued a stern warning that “for every tariff, there will be a response in kind.”
A source within the Canadian government said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a “productive” phone call with Trump, but did not provide additional details.
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These tariff threats are seen as a potential disruptor of the global economy, risking further intensifying already high tensions with China and threatening to upend relations with the U.S.’s two major neighbors.
Stock markets reacted nervously to the news, with analysts noting “volatile trading conditions” as investors absorbed the implications of Trump’s remarks, according to Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump said late Monday that he would impose the tariffs immediately upon taking office on January 20, unless his vaguely stated demands were met.
This signals Trump’s intent to return to the combative, unpredictable style that defined much of his first presidency, marked by abrupt and controversial policy shifts, often announced via social media.
The tariff proposals also underscore Trump’s commitment to using U.S. economic power to address issues beyond traditional trade disputes—particularly immigration and drug trafficking, which he has framed as critical national security concerns.
On Tuesday, Trump named two key figures to his economic team: Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett as his top economic advisor, heading the National Economic Council.
Both men previously served in Trump’s first administration, with Greer having worked as chief of staff to former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
Trump’s posts included a vow to “sign all necessary documents” to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, which he said would remain in place until “drugs, particularly fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country.”
He also targeted China with a 10% tariff, “above any additional tariffs,” because of Beijing’s failure to curb fentanyl trafficking.
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China’s embassy in Washington responded by stressing that “China believes that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature,” and that trade wars would harm both sides.
Mexico’s President Sheinbaum pushed back against Trump’s rhetoric, calling the tariff threats “not acceptable” and based on “erroneous” assumptions.
She argued that tariffs and threats would not solve the root causes of migration or reduce U.S. drug consumption.
She noted that Mexico’s drug industry largely caters to American demand, and pointed out that 70% of the illegal firearms seized from criminals in Mexico come from the U.S. “Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost due to the violence tied to your drug consumption,” Sheinbaum said.
Some experts, like William Reinsch from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggest Trump’s public threats might be more about posturing—a strategy of “threaten, and then negotiate.”
However, Trump’s first term was marked by a combative, protectionist trade policy, particularly targeting China, Mexico, and Canada.
During his presidency, Trump initiated a full-scale trade war with China, imposing billions in tariffs on Chinese goods, which led to retaliatory measures from Beijing, including tariffs on American products like agricultural goods that hurt U.S. farmers.
Economists warn that tariffs can harm U.S. economic growth and contribute to inflation, as they are ultimately paid by U.S. consumers when companies pass on the higher costs.
Trump has also indicated he plans to appoint Howard Lutnick, a staunch China critic, as commerce secretary to oversee U.S. trade policy, signaling that his administration may pursue even more aggressive economic policies in the years to come.
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