The Federal Government has officially released the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), warning that significant flooding is expected to impact Lagos, Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa, Kebbi, and 28 other states as the rainy season commences.
This alert was issued by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr. Joseph Utsev, during a presentation in Abuja themed “Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy.”
Utsev stressed that “early information saves lives, livelihoods, protects infrastructure, and reduces economic losses,” highlighting a shift toward modernizing Nigeria’s hydrological networks and integrating data with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to provide more reliable forecasts for farmers and urban planners.
The Minister emphasized that the AFO is a call for immediate preparation rather than just a technical report.
He noted that “AFO is therefore not just a scientific report, it is a call to action by all in terms of preparation ahead of the flood season.”
However, he warned that data is only effective if local governments and communities act on it, stating, “forecasts alone are not sufficient if the information does not translate into action at the community level.”
The event featured high-level representation, including Minister of Environment Balarabe Lawal, who stood in for President Bola Tinubu, as well as various state leaders and security chiefs.
Regarding specific projections, Utsev revealed that “14,118 communities in 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in 33 States and FCT fall within the high flood risk areas.”
Furthermore, he indicated that “15,597 Communities in 405 LGAs, 35 states except Ekiti State, will experience moderate flood risk,” while low-level flooding is expected to affect nearly a thousand communities across 24 states.
Major urban centers such as Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt were specifically flagged for flash floods due to “high rainfall intensities, low attention to management of water facilities including drainage systems, waterways and lack of flood resilience structures.”
Utsev also underscored the strategic importance of water, asserting that “as we transition toward a water-based economy, we must recognize that water security is national security.”
He called on state and local authorities to take immediate steps, stating, “I therefore call on state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to carefully study the findings and advisories contained in this document and take the necessary steps to prepare for the coming flood season.”
He urged that “floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems must be improved, and communities must be empowered to adapt,” concluding that “preparedness remains the most effective strategy for reducing flood risks.”
The Director General of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA), Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, noted that the agency has upgraded from traditional methods to a “Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system” to ensure better accuracy.
This technological shift includes a new “Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture” and a mobile app integrated with a Geo-Intelligence system, supported by “flood marshals” at the back-end to handle queries.
NiMet Director General Prof. Charles Anosike echoed these sentiments, urging Nigeria to “rethink its development strategy by prioritising issues concerning water resources” to mitigate the recurring devastation of floods.
Summary List of Affected States by Risk Level
High Flood Risk States
-
Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara, and the FCT.
Moderate Flood Risk States
-
All 36 states except Ekiti State.
Low Flood Risk States
-
Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara.
Flash and Urban Flooding (Major Cities)
-
Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin–Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri, and Yola.
Coastal and Riverine Flooding States
-
Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo.
