US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are heading toward their election showdown on November 5, marking one of the closest contests in modern American history.
As Election Day approaches, the gap between the two rivals is minimal in several critical states that are pivotal to the 2024 race.
According to the US Constitution, each of the 50 states conducts its own presidential vote.
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The Electoral College system assigns each state a number of electors based on its population. Most states use a winner-takes-all approach, awarding all electors to the candidate who wins the popular vote.
To win, a candidate needs 270 out of the 538 electoral votes, making the battleground states—historically known for swinging between Republican and Democratic candidates—decisive.
This year, seven states are considered toss-ups, with margins within the error range. Here’s a breakdown:
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)
Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania is now a highly contested state. Trump narrowly won it in 2016 by 0.7 percentage points, while Biden took it in 2020 by 1.2 points. Known for its industrial cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania has struggled with the decline of manufacturing. Trump is focusing on rural white voters and highlighting immigration issues, while Harris promotes infrastructure investments, particularly a $100 billion plan aimed at revitalizing manufacturing.
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)
Georgia became a focal point during Trump’s first term, especially following his indictment related to election interference. Despite Biden’s historic win as the first Democrat in the state since 1992, demographic shifts could favor Harris, who is actively engaging minority voters.
North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)
North Carolina has only voted Democratic once since 1980, but Harris is optimistic about regaining it. The state’s growing population and diversity could work in Democrats’ favor. Trump faces challenges, including a scandal involving the Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the aftermath of storm Helene could also affect voter sentiment.
Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)
Trump flipped Michigan in 2016, but Biden regained it in 2020 thanks to support from union workers and a substantial Black community. Harris now faces the risk of losing the support of a significant Arab-American population dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)
Arizona was one of the tightest races in 2020, with Biden winning by just 10,457 votes. Trump aims to leverage frustrations with the current administration’s immigration policies to reclaim the state. Harris has pledged to address migration issues and revive a bipartisan border bill.
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
After a poor performance in 2016, Trump lost Wisconsin to Biden, who turned a 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000-vote win. Trump considers Wisconsin winnable again, having held the summer national convention there, but the race remains tight.
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)
Nevada has not voted Republican since 2004. Trump believes he can sway Hispanic voters and has previously held a lead against Biden. However, Harris has managed to erase that advantage by promoting economic plans aimed at small businesses and tackling inflation, especially in Las Vegas, a city dominated by the hospitality industry.
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